July 11, 2012, Flextech Alliance Workshop, San Francisco—Matt Grimshaw from Future Fab International moderated a panel on metal oxide thin film transistors at a workshop held during the Semicon conference. Panel members included Malcolm Thompson, chief technical advisor from Flextech Alliance, David Barnes, analyst from Bizwitz, David Allee from the Flexible Display Center at Arizona State University, and Shelby Nelson from the Eastman Kodak Company.
Killer apps?
Thompson offered that there have been lots of discussions on this topic, but no consensus. The best way to move forward is to build prototypes and try them as products. Through multiple iterations, a significant application will appear.
Barnes suggested the migration of military functions to commercial apps.
Allee noted that it is now possible to start with a conceptual design and quickly move to volume production. For example, Pebble went to kickstarter for crowd funding and user evaluations to create a line of Bluetooth-enabled watches that link to mobile devices. The ability to get users' opinions before finalizing the design allows the developer to escape the capital versus demand trap.
Nelson asked "where is the money?" High volume products are likely to be medical, like smart band aids.
Roadmaps for the technology?
Thompson said that industries use history to extrapolate roadmaps. For emerging technologies, this is like a revenue forecast, of little real value. Flextech funds projects and prototype developments to see if a technology directions is viable. One outcome is that Nike and Reebok are developing sensors for athletics.
Barnes opined that disposable diagnostic functions for the third world may drive the roadmaps. Universities aren't interested in roadmaps because there are no product categories associated with them.
Economics and markets? Do ecosystems exist? So far only general function demonstrations and no commonality.
Thompson agreed and stated that, historically, sectors emerge from niche products before moving to high volume products.
Is there any place in the US with the infrastructure to go from R&D to prototypes to full production?
Allee concluded that people go into and out of roadmap agreements. Semiconductor companies are being driven away by the lack of industry drivers.
Do we need a Steve Jobs type person to drive the industry? Will flexible electronics break the paradigm of big money to work well? Will small companies drive changes and create a fundamentally different economic environment?
Allee responded that displays have always been starved for capital. The industry needs critical mass and a better ecosystem.
Displays?
Thompson said that there are a number of visions on how to use the technologies. Some will win and some will lose. This transition is already starting to happen as the technology matures. For example, printing as an additive process has enabled 3-D printers and a whole ecosystem of suppliers, materials, and equipment.
Nelson added that functional printing is emerging.
Allee noted that all the printers print something different. For example, a molecular direct write fab induces a behavioral change and enables mass customization. The electronics will soon match these capabilities and encourage further customization.
Materials volatility?
Allee offered that ITO is expected to last over 20 years.
Barnes added that flexible displays will enable other flexible technologies. The industry needs a P-channel device or other load device to go beyond displays. This will happen.
Depreciated equipment?
Thompson noted that the display industry still needs to get a good ROI, and this requires a big commitment in capital. As a result, the number of players will continue to decrease. The supply chain is changing. Samsung and the other LCD makers are not making much money on the panels. Corning, 3M , and DuPont are the ones making the money. For a change, the bottom of the supply chain is getting most of the money. The semiconductor business is not moving to flexible products because it is still looking for that great idea.
Barnes added that companies need to expend more effort on product design versus engineering to make products for the users, and not parts that just meet some specifications. The high-end of the pie is quickly moving downwards.
Allee offered that company leaders don't know what will work. The success of TFT LCDs at 19 percent annual growth also cut the half price time to about 3 years, much faster than previous technologies. This change in economics creates more problems for the management, is there a thing as too much success?
Nelson suggested that non-breakable capabilities of flexible electronics is the key function, and not flexibility. The lighter weight and ability to fit into non-planar shapes is worth extra money to the consumer.
Need for industry focus?
Thompson agreed that the industry needs to define the technology limits and get designers involved in the technology specification process. The designers need to work with the engineers to implement the concepts. Products need to address usability and functionality. The quickest path to this goal is to have an iterative rapid prototype flow.